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Saturday, March 23, 2013

Asian Teams - Dominant Period in Tests



This is an analysis of Asian teams in test cricket and the extent of their domination during their peak periods.
Stats for India have been selected from post partition era. Before the number crunching, let me define the parameters of this analysis:
Dominance Ratio = (Wins + Draws +Tie ) / Losses during the past "n" Tests
Peak Period = Sequence of Tests with the best Dominance Ratio 
n = 35 and 50 Tests for separate analysis
$= Most no. of  wins in a sequence of 35 matches
Here are a few things you should know before you read the analysis:
1. I took the cumulative records of Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka from Cricinfo updated till March 23, 2013 and put them in an excel sheet.
2. I added a few columns to show total wins, total losses, total ties and total draws in the last "n" matches.
3. I then highlighted the years with best dominance ratio (as defined above). Where more than one "n" periods had the same ratio, I chose the period with the most wins as the Peak Period. I have highlighted the second best period in grey.
4. There was a case for making Wins and Losses more influential in the ratio than the Draws but Peak period for me is that period during which the team was almost invincible. Therefore, Draws have as much weightage as Wins in the ratio.
5. This analysis is simply based on basic stats. It does not include the quality of opposition and home and away advantages. Pakistan and India were also minnows at the time of partition, they had the same teething problems as Sri Lanka. And to Sri Lanka's advantage, they have played more Test cricket against Zimbabwe and Bangladesh during their Peak than India or Pakistan.
6. Since Sri Lanka started later than the other two teams, I believe using n=35 is a better option than using n-50. Using a smaller value for "n" will be improper since peak periods are extended periods of dominance.
7. No. of times Dominance Ratio was achieved shows the consistency of the teams: how many times the teams got near their own peak since the start of their cricket.
8. Comparison of Dominance Ratios of the three teams also shows the dominance quantitatively i.e. at the peak, how difficult was it to beat the team during the peak period...therefore, higher the Dominance Ratio, more difficult it was to beat the team.
Comparison of Pakistan India Sri Lanka Remarks
Dominance Ratio for 35 matches 10.67 7.75 3.38 Pakistan's Dominance Ratio shows that they were harder to beat at their Peak
Peak Period Start 13-Mar-87 1-Dec-78 18-Dec-05
Peak Period End 18-Jun-92 30-Jan-82 16-Nov-09
Time Period (Years) 5.27 3.17 3.92 Shows that Pakistan's 35 Tests covered a longer span than the other two.
No. of times 35 match Dominance Ratio Achieved 9 1 6 Shows that Pakistan and Sri Lanka were a lot more consistent at their peak and maintained their peak longer.
Win / Loss Ratio 3.67 1.75 2.38 Shows that Sri Lanka's peak included more results than draws. However. Sri Lanka played 7 matches against Bangladesh during the period. Pakistan played 3 matches against Sri Lanka during their peak. India did not play against any minnows.
No. of Wins 11 7 19
No. Of Losses 3 4 8
No. Of Draws. 21 24 8
No. Of Ties 0 0 0
Most no. of  wins in a sequence of 35 matches ($) 18 17 19
No. of times $ achieved 10 7 8
Dominance Ratio for 50 matches 7.33 4.56 3.17 See links below
No. of times 50 match Dominance Ratio Achieved 13 1 2

For complete analysis and data tables click: