Muhammad Amir vs Junaid Khan

Comparisons between these two have always gone in favour of Amir due to his outstanding performances in England and Australia where performances turn players into superstars. Also Amir had received a lot of praise from Imran Khan and Wasim Akram among others whereas Junaid is still considered by many as just another one of Pakistan's usual crop of good fast bowlers. However, stats say that Junaid could turn out to be better than Amir within a year or two.

After 14 Test matches, both have almost similar bowling records, with Junaid having a better average, economy rate and more 5 wicket hauls. Amir though has a marginally better strike rate and one more 4 wicket haul than Junaid.

What MUHAMMAD AMIR did:

He mostly bowled against England and Australia, two of the best Test teams at the time. However, he took his wickets on pitches conducive to fast bowling, in New Zealand, England and Australia, with M. Asif keeping the batsman under pressure at the other end and an experienced Umer Gul also playing a supporting role. Amir took 19 wickets from 4 matches each against England and Australia, six of those 8 matches were played in England.

What JUNAID KHAN has done till now:

He has taken all his five wicket hauls against Sri Lanka, two in UAE and two in Sri Lanka. 34 of his 50 Test wickets have come against SL, in 7 matches. Although SL does not have the best batting line-up, but they have generally done well against Pakistan at home and also in UAE. Junaid also did not have any experienced fast bowlers to help keep the pressure at the other end, and he has mostly taken wickets on placid tracks conducive to spin. Although he did play in South Africa where he took only 6 wickets in 3 matches, he can be forgiven since SA batting line-up consists of batsmen with a collection of over 110 centuries among them. 

CONCLUSION

After what Junaid Khan did against the in-form and world beating batting line up of India on those juicy pitches in the ODI series, we could expect something special from him on away tours in England, New Zealand and Australia but there aren't any scheduled before 2015. We''ll just have to make do with Amir's youtube videos till then.

Asian Teams - Dominant Period in Tests

This is an analysis of Asian teams in test cricket and the extent of their domination during their peak periods.

Stats for India have been selected from post partition era. Before the number crunching, let me define the parameters of this analysis:

Dominance Ratio = (Wins + Draws +Tie ) / Losses during the past "n" Tests

Peak Period = Sequence of Tests with the best Dominance Ratio

n = 35 and 50 Tests for separate analysis

$= Most no. of  wins in a sequence of 35 matches

Here are a few things you should know before you read the analysis:

1. I took the cumulative records of Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka from Cricinfo updated till March 23, 2013 and put them in an excel sheet.

2. I added a few columns to show total wins, total losses, total ties and total draws in the last "n" matches.

3. I then highlighted the years with best dominance ratio (as defined above). Where more than one "n" periods had the same ratio, I chose the period with the most wins as the Peak Period. I have highlighted the second best period in grey.

4. There was a case for making Wins and Losses more influential in the ratio than the Draws but Peak period for me is that period during which the team was almost invincible. Therefore, Draws have as much weightage as Wins in the ratio.

5. This analysis is simply based on basic stats. It does not include the quality of opposition and home and away advantages. Pakistan and India were also minnows at the time of partition, they had the same teething problems as Sri Lanka. And to Sri Lanka's advantage, they have played more Test cricket against Zimbabwe and Bangladesh during their Peak than India or Pakistan.

6. Since Sri Lanka started later than the other two teams, I believe using n=35 is a better option than using n-50. Using a smaller value for "n" will be improper since peak periods are extended periods of dominance.

7. No. of times Dominance Ratio was achieved shows the consistency of the teams: how many times the teams got near their own peak since the start of their cricket.

8. Comparison of Dominance Ratios of the three teams also shows the dominance quantitatively i.e. at the peak, how difficult was it to beat the team during the peak period...therefore, higher the Dominance Ratio, more difficult it was to beat the team.

Comparison of		Pakistan	India	Sri Lanka		Remarks
Dominance Ratio for 35 matches		10.67	7.75	3.38		Pakistan's Dominance Ratio shows that they were harder to beat at their Peak
Peak Period Start		13-Mar-87	1-Dec-78	18-Dec-05
Peak Period End		18-Jun-92	30-Jan-82	16-Nov-09
Time Period (Years)		5.27	3.17	3.92		Shows that Pakistan's 35 Tests covered a longer span than the other two.
No. of times 35 match Dominance Ratio Achieved		9	1	6		Shows that Pakistan and Sri Lanka were a lot more consistent at their peak and maintained their peak longer.
Win / Loss Ratio		3.67	1.75	2.38		Shows that Sri Lanka's peak included more results than draws. However. Sri Lanka played 7 matches against Bangladesh during the period. Pakistan played 3 matches against Sri Lanka during their peak. India did not play against any minnows.
No. of Wins		11	7	19
No. Of Losses		3	4	8
No. Of Draws.		21	24	8
No. Of Ties		0	0	0
Most no. of  wins in a sequence of 35 matches ($)		18	17	19
No. of times $ achieved		10	7	8
Dominance Ratio for 50 matches		7.33	4.56	3.17		See links below
No. of times 50 match Dominance Ratio Achieved		13	1	2

For complete analysis and data tables click:

Asian Cricket Teams Peak - 50 Matches

Asian Cricket Teams Peak - 35 Matches

Pakistan's T20 League

PCB is contemplating holding a T20 domestic league having a franchise system much like the IPL but different and unique at the same time. On PTV Sports, Amir Sohail floated the idea of a PRO 40 tournament. In this post, a new tournament is being proposed incorporating the features of the Super 8s, ICL, Barclays English Premier League (EPL) and IPL, which might have the potential to bring international cricket back to Pakistan. Remember, copying is one thing, taking inspiration is another. What Pakistan cricket needs currently is a tournament to showcase that our country is safe for international cricket and that it has the potential to become a financial hub for investors.

The Best Asian Team?

A friend of mine believes Sri Lanka is the best Asian team in ODIs based on their performances in Australia this year, and the fact that they've played three world cup finals like India. However, when I did some statsguru search, I found that Sri Lanka is the worst, barring Bangladesh. Also India and Pakistan have been fairly equal, however, Pakistan's overall record in ODIs edges them ahead of India.

Controversially Yours!

Shoaib Akhtar is in the spotlight again, this time because of his controversial autobiography, aptly titled Controversially Yours. It just came out this week, so might take some time before I get my hands on a copy.

In his publicity campaign, Shoaib said that Tendulker was probably scared of him, quoting an instance when Tendulker elbowed one of Shoaib's deliveries but walked off as if the ball had hit the gloves. Shoaib also said that Tendulker and Dravid aren't match winners. With nearly 50,000 international runs between them, it doesn't matter what Shoaib says, both are exceptional batsmen. However, it is true that some great batsmen had a hard time against Shoaib Akhtar. Here are some stats and videos of these modern greats in Shoaib Akhtar's firing line:

Champions Humbled

"There still are one or two donkeys in the field.":Nasser Hussain

We've all seen India's humiliation in England this year, the 4-0 whitewash in the Test series (when they were the number 1 Test team in the world at the beginning of the tour), loss in the only T20 and now the 3-0 loss in the 5 match ODI series (one match tied and one abandoned). This was India's second series since becoming World Champions, the first was against a weak West Indian side.

The last time India won the 50-over World Cup in 1983, in their very next series, they were humbled by the West Indies at home. The WI won 8 out of 11 matches on that tour, all five ODIs and three Tests out of six (the rest were drawn).

Here's a summary of that tour:

Azhar Ali: The new Asim Kamal?

I remember Geoff Boycott talking about Asim Kamal way back in 2006 in a post match analysis, after the Pakistani batsmen threw away their wickets with reckless shots: "I haven't seen the lad, but I've just seen the record you just showed, and I see that he's scored so many fifties but no hundreds, and in Test matches you need guys who can score big hundreds...So I wouldn't pick him in my playing XI" However, Rameez Raja and Sanjay Manjreker laughed off his comments and said consistency such as Asim Kamal had showed was hard to find among young batsmen in the sub-continent.

Yet Another Retirement!

I'm a big fan of Afridi's leg spin but not of his captaincy. When ever he made a blunder, it was at the biggest stage: T20 semi final against Australia, when he miscalculated the overs and ended up giving Ajmal the 20th over instead of the two fast bowlers he had at his disposal, and World Cup 2011 semi final when he did not take the Powerplay even though he was on strike with Misbah, and the required rate was 8 and a half for the last 10-odd overs.

Afridi Retires Yet Again

Pakistan vs Australia, World Cup 2011

Pakistan should win this match, the Aussie middle order apart from Clarke isn't scoring much, though Hussey's inclusion would strengthen their batting , especially considering his record against Pakistan in all forms of the game (He has scored 64, 35*, 29, 49, 67 and 40* in his 6 innings against Pakistan in ODIs). Pakistan has got very good spinners, Gul and Riaz (if shoaib doesn't play) are normally good at bowling at the death, so the match result depends on how we play in the first 15 overs of each innings.

Get YOUR Best Out of Pakistan

In the last two years, many batsmen have made their highest scores (in all three formats) against Pakistan. Seeing tail-enders contribute in rebuilding after the opposition is 3 or 4 down early in the innings is now a common sight,  maybe because our bowlers do not plan for the lower order batsmen or relax after their first spells.
Here is a list of batsmen who have made their career best scores in Tests against Pakistan in the last two years.

Tanvir Ahmed

Tanvir Ahmed is an exception when it comes to Pakistani fast bowlers, he's made his debut at nearly 32 years of age when usually Pakistan bring in fast bowlers when they are young. He'll probably have a short career but he looks good enough to play for Pakistan until we get a new Muhammad Aamer. He's already bowled some Waqar-Younis-like deliveries today.

Zulqarnain's Flight

I've got some wild theories about Zulqarnain's flight to England:

1. Akmals threatened him indirectly, so Adnan could be the wicket keeper and Kamran could come in the team as a batsman.

2. Zulqarnain was told that he wouldn't be playing in the fifth ODI so he decided it was best to do something about it instead of accepting like he did in the Test series against England.

3. Zulqarnain thought he had a better chance of playing for England than playing for Pakistan, and at least, he could play for a county there.

4. He knew something about the the Butt, Aamer, Asif issue and was a threat to their case.

5. He's telling the truth but now he's regretting what he's done.

I believe if he doesn't tell the whole story soon, he's never going to tell it. None of the former cricketers believe him except Sarfaraz Nawaz. He's been changing his statements every other day. His family doesn't seem to support him either. To me, it looks like he's foolish but telling the truth.

The Curious Case of Fawad Alam

Every time he walks out to bat, there is an uncomfortable feeling of watching a meaningless innings from an overrated batsman. His career ODI strike rate of 74 runs per hundred balls is too low for an allrounder-turned-specialist batsman coming in the lower order. He can't play the short ball, a deficiency which makes him ineffective on fast bouncy pitches. He doesn't have the power to hit boundaries required at the end of an innings. His technique has been criticized, his stance even more. But his stats say otherwise.

He averages over 42 in ODIs (as of today). Of his 23 innings in ODI cricket till now, he has returned not out 9 times, with a strike rate of 103.54 in those innings. Nearly all his best performances have come when the team needed them most (fifties against Australia, England and South Africa).

In T20s, he averages 18 (SR 117) which is acceptable considering he comes in to bat at no.7 with not many balls left.

In his three Tests (two in Srilanka, one in New Zealand) he averages 41.66. He has yet to prove his test credentials though. His only Test innings of note is the brilliant 168 he scored on debut against Srilanka in Colombo, in 2009. 

His pattern of scoring suggests that he likes to accumulate runs in singles and doubles and then hit out in the latter part of his innings. To be fair to him, for a man criticized for being too slow in his scoring, he hasn't been given adequate chances. In limited overs cricket he comes in to bat at no.6 or 7 when he would have been better suited in the middle order, especially in the absence of some senior batsmen. On many occasions, he has had to rebuild the innings after a batting collapse. In Tests he hasn't been given a proper chance since he failed in the Dunedin Test against New Zealand.

Pak VS SA T20s, What Went Wrong?

Batting first after winning the toss in the T20s was foolish on Afridi's part. There is always the dew factor in the sub continent and UAE, which makes batting a lot easier in the second innings, and gripping the ball a much harder task.

Pakistan's 11 out of 26 T20 wins have come batting 2nd, that's 42% of the wins. 

Pak has lost 6 out of 15 T20s batting 2nd, that's 40% of the losses. 

Overall loss ratio when batting 2nd is 33% only.

So to say that Pakistan are not good chasers is over generalizing the team's performance in ODIs and Tests. The fact is Pak should have bowled first, at least in the 2nd T20, knowing that SA had the conditions a lot easier when batting in the first T20.

Hafeez bowled well in both matches, Afridi should have let him finish his quota in the first T20 instead of bowling Razzaq in the closing overs. Its not the same in UAE as bowling on English seaming tracks at 78 mph. Razzaq's got a good record bowling in the powerplay, but when chasing 120s, teams are only going to use him as a punch bag.

Shahzaib Hassan should be kicked out of the team till the World Cup, and Imran Farhat till the 2015 World Cup. Personally, I'd like to see Razzaq coming one down, and Shahzaib after two down when Kamran Akmal is back. Razzq is good against fast bowlers, Shahzaib played the spinners well in the domestic tournament (he hasn't played one in T20s for ages since he gets out inside the first three overs.)

And somebody should tell Misbah he can prove his Test credentials in the Tests, no need to mess up the T20s.

Step Aside, Mr.Ponting!

After the retirement of Shane Warne, Glen McGrath, Mathew Hayden, Justin Langer, Adam Gilchrist and Damien Martyn, Australia's decline in Test cricket was expected but now that it's right in front of us, it surprises. 

Ponting was made captain in 2004 and till December 2007 had lost only three Tests as captain. In January 2008, India beat Australia in the Perth Test. To prove that it wasn't a fluke, India beat Australia in another two Tests in October of that year to take their home series. Mixed results meant Australia's aura of invincibility had by then tarnished.

A home series loss against South Africa gave a sense of what was coming. But Ponting reinforced his claim on captaincy by winning the away series against the South Africans. The loss of the Ashes though, for the second time in England, when Ponting had recovered them in style through a 5-0 drubbing of England the last time the two teams had met (2006-2007), meant there were calls for taking the captaincy from him. Ponting responded with seven Tests wins on the trot, albeit against weaker Test sides (Pakistan, New Zealand and West Indies).

The date: 24th July 2010, the venue: England, the opposition: probably the weakest Test side Pakistan ever had, and Australia were beaten by Pakistan in a Test match for the first time in nearly fifteen years, after 13 consecutive wins against Pakistan. Ponting was disappointed but not as disappointed as he was when two months later his team lost against India again, this time by just one wicket. 

Second and last match of the series, Ponting would have been dreaming of victory after his side had scored a formidable 478 in the first innings and got Sehwag out cheaply. But Sachin Tendulkar, with his new habit of scoring runs even when India wins, churned out a double hundred and a fifty to seal the match for the Indians, and Ponting was left with another record, that of being the first Australian captain in 22 years to lose three consecutive Tests and the first to lose all matches of a series since 1982.

Ponting had always had the support of former captains, but now that Geoff Lawson has called for his axing and Shane Warne, regarded as the best captain Australia never had, tweeting furiously about his tactics for Nathan Hauritz in the last Test, it looks as if this Ashes series will be the last for Ponting as test skipper. Australia is still number one in ODI rankings, but it wouldn't save Ponting post the World Cup next year.

In his tenure, Ponting has lost five Test series in six years which by Australian standards is a lot. Australia has slipped from 1st to 5th in the ICC Test rankings, and it will be the first time since the rankings were introduced that England would be ranked higher than Australia at the start of the Ashes. To be fair to Ponting, some of the matches he has lost as a skipper were very close matches, a 1 wicket loss to India, a 3 wicket loss to Pakistan, and a 2 run loss to England. But the fact remains: he has yet to win a Test in India or a series in England. And it looks like he won't be getting another chance.

Pakistan Cricket Team's Selection

Pakistan Team's 15 member squad for the ODI and T20 series against South Africa in the UAE has been announced.

I hate to say this, but Shoaib Malik does have a place in the ODI team considering the upcoming World Cup. If Misbah can play, so can he, its just a matter of controlling him and his group-bndi outside the ground. Misbah deserved his chance because of his performance in the domestic ODI competition.

Somehow, the selectors have seen sense and dropped Umer Amin and Azhar Ali from the ODI squad. Azhar deserves a chance in the Test series though, especially if the pitches are good for battting. He's had a rough time in his early days, playing in England against good seamers, so he should get a chance to play in the tests against South Africa.

The bittersweet news is the exclusion of Kamran Akmal, replaced by Zulqarnain Haider due to Akmal's appendicitus operation. Akmal's batting will be sorely missed, his keeping probably not.. Haider should stay for the tests if he keeps well. No need for a keeper who can bat if he can't keep.

Tanveer Ahmed gets a chance, lets see if he gets to play. Asad Shafiq retains his place and rightly so. Except for the last two ODIs against England, he looked good in the series.

Intikhab Alam makes a comeback, this time as the manager. I guess Ejaz Butt can't sleep without the knowledge that the team has a 70 year old Baba Ji with them. Shaid dua'ain kerne k kam aatay hain. 

I would've liked to see Rana Naveed or Rao Iftikhar in the squad, both are good bowlers in limited overs cricket, especially in sub-continental conditions. In Amer and Asif's absence they could have been included.

The captain hasn't been announced yet, can't see why. If Afridi is in the squad, he's got to be the captain. Perhaps, Prince Butt is mad again !

Pakistan squad: Imran Farhat, Mohammad Hafeez, Mohammad Yousuf, Misbah-ul-Haq, Umar Akmal, Asad Shafiq, Fawad Alam, Shahid Afridi, Abdul Razzaq, Umar Gul, Saeed Ajmal, Abdur Rehman, Shoaib Akhtar, Tanveer Ahmed, Zulqarnain Haider (wk).

Laws of Cricket

With growing concerns about lack of interest in cricket, especially the longer formats, ICC had been looking at making changes in the game which will bring crowds back to the stadiums for Tests and ODIs. However Marylebone Cricket Club (MCC), which is responsible for the laws of the game, has come up with quiet a few changes in the laws of the game which might offend some of the die-hard fans. From October 1, 2010, following changes will take effect:

Umpires will now make all decisions regarding bad light without consulting the batsmen

This is probably a good decision, considering how many teams waste a lot of time in the last session of a Test. Batsman are seen asking for adjustment of the sight screen, changing gloves, taking an unscheduled drinks break, bowlers taking time in getting back to their run-ups, field changes after every other ball, which not only frustrate the other team but also the viewers. 

However we won't be seeing anymore of matches like the Karachi Test in 2000 when England won in near darkness.

At least one umpire will also now be required to attend the toss and the winning captain must notify his counterpart of his decision to bat or field immediately.

Previously, captains could choose to bat or bowl until 10 minutes before the start of the game, but in some cases, to the losing side’s disadvantage, this was being exploited to keep the other team in the dark for too long – and therefore contravened the Spirit of Cricket.

Preventing bowlers from delivering the ball with their front foot having crossed an imaginary line between the middle stumps e.g. declaring they were bowling over the wicket but releasing the ball as if they were bowling round the wicket.